Did the Libs win the 2010 election because they preferenced the Greens last?

Many psephologists continue to assert that the Liberals won the Victorian state election in 2010 when they made the bombshell announcement that they would preference the Greens last on their How-to-Vote cards. 

This decision is seen as 'decisive' and as turning the election in their favour.

Commentators offer no evidence to support this theory, but it continues to feature as conventional wisdom. William Bowe, who produces the Poll Bludger website, put it this way in a Guardian article on 17 November 2014:

The gambit of putting the Greens in last place decisively energised their [the Liberals] campaign last time, and it comes as no surprise that they have opted to do so again.

The Liberals announced they would preference Labor over the Greens on Sunday 14 November 2010 - just 13 days before the election. Pre-polling would start the following morning.

This was a surprise. They had always preferenced the Greens over Labor previously, diverting Labor resources from marginal Liberal/Labor seats. However, at a federal level the Greens had just entered into an agreement to support the Gillard government, and there was a mood for change.

In 2010 the Liberals went on to win the Victorian election by one seat. Although the Greens came very close in Melbourne, Richmond and especially Brunswick, they did not win any of those lower house seats. They would have won all of them with Liberal preferences, and come close in Northcote.

But did this decision to put the Greens last win the election for the Liberal party?

Labor, through its Griffin report into the 2010 Victorian loss, has released its internal polling in the lead up to the election. The figures are in this graph:

Looking at the figures for 14 November and immediately thereafter, Labor was on 50% two party preferred before the announcement, and then went up to 51 2PP just after it, before dropping back to its 50 2PP thereafter. 

It is clear that the announcement on 14 November 2010 made no demonstrable difference to the figures, and Labor ran very close to the wind all the way to election day. 

In the wake of the coalition's announcement that it would preference Labor ahead of the Greens, no major shift to the coalition can be observed from these figures.

Labor should not have been surprised about their loss in 2010. Their own internal polling told them it was coming. The debacles of MYKI, the desalination plant, channel deepening, and the north-south pipeline cost Labor government - not the Liberals' decision on their how-to-vote cards.

As we move towards the 2014 election, the same preferencing decision will not help the Liberals, and Labor's decision not to reach an accommodation with the Greens will take the edge off a likely victory.

Election night and the results in Melbourne

Once again, a big "thank you" to all those who helped during our campaign for Melbourne, and all those who voted Green.  

As at Wednesday 1 December,  I have received slightly more than 31% of the votes in the seat of Melbourne.  This is the highest Green vote of any seat in Victoria and is a swing of around +3.8% - very strong considering the big swing to the conservatives across the State.

Even with the Liberals supporting Labor, the seat remains a Green/Labor one, with the margin now over 7%.

You can check the latest count here.

Please note that there are still many postal, absentee and early polling centre votes to count so these numbers are not yet final.

The decision by the Liberal party to direct preferences to Labor ahead of the Greens resulted in Liberal preferences re-electing Labor's Bronwyn Pike.

For many, this election was about preferences, hung parliaments, and fear. For us, it was about principles, policies and inspiration.

Looking back at this experience, the journey was well worth it. I would always have regretted it if I had not stood, and I learnt so much along the way, and gained so much from the many people I met.

Let's hope we'll be able to surmount the larger hurdle of overcoming the combined Liberal/Labor vote next time, and here's to the promotion of Green values.

Here is my speech on election night.

The last day of the campaign and the power of voting of Green

Today is the last day of my campaign for the state seat of Melbourne.  I have had a great time and met lots of people throughout the electorate.  I would like to thank all the volunteers who have helped me so much during the campaign.  I couldn't have done it without you.

Chatting to an inner city local at Lygon Street

From the feedback I have received from residents, it is clear that we need to make big improvements in public transport, public housing, planning decisions and childcare.

Your vote is powerful.  If I get elected I commit to pursuing these and other improvements with a vigour that the major parties choose not to match.

I did my last radio interview with Jon Faine on ABC 774 radio this morning. After the interview I chatted to some locals in Lygon Street who were born in Italy.  They were all interested in voting Green as an alernative to the same-same policies of Labor and the Coalition.

Chatting with Lygon Street locals

At 12:30 I attended the last event before the election with all the Greens MPs and the inner city candidates on the steps of parliament.  You can watch the video below.

I also joined with the protesters from the Care Leavers Australia Network (CLAN) who are demanding that Wards of the State to get justice and redress from the victorian government.

Supporting the Care Leavers Australian Network protest

Its over to you the voter now.  Remember that its your vote and your preference, you don't need to follow the how-to-vote cards of any political party.

If you vote 1 for me (and number all the other boxes) and I get elected, the state seat of Melbourne will change for the better.

The Real Forest Debate - protecting our native forests and jobs

I attend the Real Forest Debate at RMIT in Melbourne last night.  It was great to see so many people at this important event.

Here is video of me speaking.

Science has found recently that Victoria’s native forests are among the most carbon dense in the world.  Our forests produce most of our water, and contribute to the oxygen we breathe.

We appreciate their rich biodiversity and their beauty.  In short, they are unique and wonderful. Yet in 2010, we still clearfell and burn them.

Labor has broken their 2006 election promise to “protect the last significant stands of old growth forest available to logging”.

Brown Mountain and other old growth forests were recently logged. The Brumby government is actually in the logging business via their agency VicForests.  The Supreme Court found this year the Victorian Government to be in breach of the law for not ensuring threatened species surveys were conducted prior to logging.

Only about one quarter of the paltry 40,000 hectares the Labor government eventually protected this year is actually old growth.

Logging in Victoria's water catchments also continues despite clear scientific evidence it is decreasing water supplies across the state.

It is worth noting that most of our native forests logged, around 80%, ends up as low value woodchips, not timber. Less than 2% is furniture grade.

Despite the ongoing logging of our native forests, jobs have dwindled in this sector.  Three decades ago there were around 40 sawmills operating in Gippsland.  Today there are only 6 or 7.

Only this week, Bob Humphries from the Cann River saw mill said "The writing is on the wall - we are not going to survive"

Yet the best John Brumby and Minister Jennings can do is to offer to facilitate "peace talks", while the Liberals have committed to continued logging that will destroy our remaining forests.

Labor and the Coalition have both abdicated responsibility to save our forests despite overwhelming community support for this.

Its no surprise then that support is rising for the Greens as we are committed to an immediate logging industry transition out of native forests to plantations.  There are enough hardwood and softwood plantations for this immediate transition to occur. This transition is 10 years overdue.

We need action on protecting our remaining native forests, not more broken promises and subterfuge from our governments.

This is the UN International Year of Biodiversity. We the Greens will protect our remaining native forests from logging so that their biodiversity, the carbon they store, the water they produce is safeguarded.

We will promote a vibrant jobs-rich timber industry based on existing hardwood and softwood plantations that are available right now.  Our vision is for East Gippsland’s forests to be protected and part of World Heritage area with long term prosperity from nature-based tourism.

Why I am standing for the seat of Melbourne

Welcome.

I’m inspired by creativity, and caring for the environment is vital to me. I aspire to the ideal of democracy: the belief that all people should have the right to be heard and included in the decisions that will govern their lives.

I am standing as the Greens candidate for the state seat of Melbourne in the upcoming Victorian state election.

I will be posting updates and items of interest to this blog.

You can also visit my site for more personal information about me.

Links

• Green barrister vies for Pike's seat, The Age, 24 August 2009